|
|
Post by MarkAnderson on Apr 28, 2020 19:07:06 GMT -7
Do you think COVID will permanently impact commercial climbing gyms? I figure there was already a climbing gym “bubble,” with venture capitalists funding conglomerates like Earth Treks/Planet Granite to stamp out soul-less McGyms all over the country to cater to non-core customers dabbling in the latest exercise fad. That bubble was sure to burst eventually, regardless of any shift in sanitation paradigms. However, now that the world is concerned about sanitation, can public climbing gyms survive? Cleaning workout equipment is one thing, but how do you clean routes effectively with any reasonable frequency? I’ve thought about this for the last few days and the only reasonably practical solution I’ve come up with is to heat/bake the entire gym to whatever temperature it takes to kill Coronavirus (which is not at all practical—see note below). Anyway, I think the mega gyms are in trouble. Core climbers will continue to climb indoors and out, but there aren’t enough of us, and we don’t spend enough, to support all these gyms without the casual users. I suspect also that the sport of climbing at large will see a sharp loss in casual participants as people re-think putting their hands where hundreds of other dirtbags have already been. Note: Apparently you would have to heat the gym to well over 50C or 100F according to this study: www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-heat-kill-virus-1498074%3famp=1 |
|
|
|
Post by MarkAnderson on Apr 28, 2020 19:19:17 GMT -7
|
|
|
|
Post by jetjackson on Apr 28, 2020 20:46:52 GMT -7
I don't think that sanitation will necessarily stop gyms from opening in the long term. Have you read any information to indicate that US states will require this?
I can see gyms closed for longer than other restrictions that are in place in Australia. I expect that they will stay closed for at least another 3 months. Once they reopen I think we will see subdued demand. I know a lot of climbers that now have spent a grand or two, maybe more on their own home walls and will be looking to recoup some of that through less visits to the climbing gym. The video I have on YouTube for building a Freestanding climbing wall has gone from 2000 hits per month on average last year, to 33000 views in April. Lot's of people reaching out to me to ask questions about their home wall builds. I'd say that those people, who previously had gym memberships, will more to 10 punch passes and only go to the gym occasionally for the social aspects. Even that social aspect will diminish. Over the next couple of months we will see restrictions ease here. In our neighboring state, people are now allowed to have 2 friends visit their house. This will probably last a month or two. Cue everyone with a woody having visitors to their house to come and climb on their woody. This will create habits in climbers to visit friends with Woody's that I think will remain after gyms reopen. Thus diminishing the social value of the gym to a degree, and reducing the patronage.
Unemployment here is expected to go to 10% this year, from around 5% right now. In any downturn, it's youth unemployment that gets smashed, and that's the main market for climbing gyms, particular for memberships, based on my observations. Honestly, I think this will be a bigger factor than the aforementioned in subdued demand for gym memberships overall.
Flipping to the supply side of the equation. Many of these gyms will have taken a significant cashflow hit, however at least in Australia banks have been providing loan repayment holidays for up to 6 months. This is on home loans, but I understand some business loans also. Moreover, a gym owner could pause their home repayments to bolster cash flow for their business. Then we have seen a drop off in interest rates from 0.75% to 0.25% here. That flows through to lower interest for gym owners, helping to bolster their cashflow. Their landlords, or if they have mortgaged the land the gym is on, then they are also seeing a reprieve on interest and repayments for a period. Our government is very eager to ensure these small to medium size businesses can get back up and running after Coronavirus and with one of the lowest per capita public debt levels in the world, they have plenty of fiscal firepower to make that happen.
I've noted that Melbourne has gone from around 12 to 20-something gyms in the 3 years since I moved here. Keeping in mind that mobility in Melbourne is a problem. Getting across town in peak hour is a 1-2 hour affair, and not much better on weekends. For that reason, combined with a lack of large blocks of available land in urban areas, and very high land costs, we have a fragmented market with many small gyms. Conversely in Houston, where I was, there are now I think 4 mega gyms, and because of their ring road system, those gyms can service a larger geographic area than here. Interestingly, some of the gym owners I've spoken with in Melbourne have described the recent gym growth as a 'land grab'. I digress.
On balance, I expect we will see a few gyms close. There have been some interesting business decisions in the past month or so. Some gyms have kept direct debits running for members unless specifically cancelled by their members. Some have asked members not to cancel to 'support the gym' and some have put memberships on hold completely.
|
|
hangboarderjon
New Member
Sometimes the hard way is the only way.
Posts: 44
|
Post by hangboarderjon on Apr 29, 2020 0:10:32 GMT -7
I can definitely see this impacting older, poorly-ventilated and poorly-maintained gyms much more than the more modern gyms simply because they won't be able to inspire confidence in visitors that it's safe to visit.
Some gyms have adapted to the circumstances by offering subscription (membership) based online classes, particularly yoga, but unfortunately they didn't go far enough with this. I watched one of the videos that was posted regarding how to hangboard, and I was appalled at the low quality instruction.
It would have been pretty easy to setup interactive online substitutes for in-person gym visits but maybe I'm overestimating the utility of online conferencing software, or overestimating the creativity of gym owners and employees.
|
|
|
|
Post by jetjackson on Apr 29, 2020 1:07:04 GMT -7
Yeah, gyms trying to provide online content for cash is a path to nowhere. The level of content and quality of that content on YouTube these days is outstanding. 5 years ago when you googled 'climbing foot technique' you just got the Neil Gresham Masterclass. Fast forward 5 years and there are at least 100 different videos on foot technique alone, with many YouTube hopefuls explaining that you should stand on your toe rather than the ball of your foot. Tongue out of cheek, wading through the myriad of videos, there are very good ones, from highly experienced and in some instances professional climbers who are willing to put out 2-3 videos a week for $100 a week worth of Patreon donations and very often for free, just to appease their sponsors appetite for media content.
I'm on the fence as to whether it's the new gyms or the older gyms that will go under. Gyms with VC backing will be able to weather the storm I'd say, for the most part - they'll probably see it as an opportunity to clear the market and may even acquire distressed gyms with their ready access to finance. Older gyms that have paid for their gym build and possibly the land many times over, they will also probably be okay. I know a gym owner who has told me that despite the gym not going so well, as he bought the land, it's value has gone up over the past 5 years or so. That land equity can be borrowed against at very low interest rates that we currently have and invested into equities to generate some dividend cashflow.
It's those in the middle ground. The newer medium sized gyms who don't have very deep pockets that over-capitalized and require high cashflow to stay from going insolvent - I think they will be in a lot of trouble. The person who just always wanted to open a gym and mortgaged their house and saddled up on debt for it, and did it in the past couple of years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Charlie S on Apr 29, 2020 9:15:59 GMT -7
Personally, I'm surprised we didn't have more issues with sanitation before. Nearly 75% of the gym gumbies would walk from the wall to the bathroom and back to the wall without taking off their climbing shoes.
My guess is that the "market" will depend largely on geographical area. Locally here, one of the gym brands did a very poor job of reaching out during the closure. Things were said that really put off some of the customer base. I know of a few people who cancelled their memberships over that. I'm not sure if that's representative of the member base at large.
Most of SLC has bought out all the holds from local manufacturers. Even T-nuts are hard to find here now. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks. Utah is set to begin reopening this Friday.
Further, there's a lot of outdoor rock here. I wouldn't be surprised if people wait until the fall to reevaluate gym memberships.
Meanwhile, the near future of gym climbing is my barn :-P
|
|
|
|
Post by MarkAnderson on Apr 29, 2020 9:39:57 GMT -7
Great thoughts. I was looking at this merely from the "gyms are gross" perspective. I hadn't considered how many people are furiously building home walls. As you all know, I love my home wall and far prefer it to a commercial gym. I wonder how many of those currently building walls will come to the same conclusion about their own creation. We may never get that far if the world climbing hold supply runs out though! Maybe gyms can survive by speculating in Climbing Hold Futures.
Anyway, if gyms stay closed for another ~3 months, that puts us into August. All the news I'm reading says next Fall/Winter/Spring will be even worse than this Spring, which suggests everything will shut down again, but for a much longer period of time (unless some long term solution is discovered).
|
|
|
|
Post by cozisco on Apr 29, 2020 10:37:16 GMT -7
Nearly 75% of the gym gumbies would walk from the wall to the bathroom and back to the wall without taking off their climbing shoes. Plus all the climbers who refuse to wash their hands for fear of softening their skin or losing a precious layer of chalk in the middle of a session. For a long time, I've been stuffing my gym's suggestion box with requests for hand sanitizer stations -- hopefully that's one thing that changes. |
|
|
|
Post by cozisco on Apr 29, 2020 10:41:46 GMT -7
One of the big California chains just announced that those who continue to pay for membership during closure are considered "priority members". When gyms first reopen (which is months, not weeks away, according to Gavin Newsome's announcement yesterday), climbing will be through an appointment system and priority members will be the only ones who have access to appointments.
I think that missteps like this and the one that Charlie mentions will further push climbers to their home walls and hangboards. Then again, of the home walls I've seen being built, it seems like 30% are going to collapse before the end of shelter-in-place, 20% are too small to be useful, and 40% don't have enough holds to be useful, haha.
|
|
|
|
Post by Charlie S on Apr 29, 2020 12:00:10 GMT -7
One of the big California chains just announced that those who continue to pay for membership during closure are considered "priority members". When gyms first reopen (which is months, not weeks away, according to Gavin Newsome's announcement yesterday), climbing will be through an appointment system and priority members will be the only ones who have access to appointments. I think that missteps like this and the one that Charlie mentions will further push climbers to their home walls and hangboards. If this happened to me, I would totally cancel my membership! Even if you are priority, there's no guarantee that your "slot" will be open if you happen to still be employed. You're better off taking your money and building something if you're serious about getting stronger. On the other hand, when things go back to normal-ish in 3-12 months, there will be a huge sell-off of climbing holds from home woodies. Start saving now! |
|
|
|
Post by MarkAnderson on Apr 29, 2020 12:03:17 GMT -7
. Then again, of the home walls I've seen being built, it seems like 30% are going to collapse before the end of shelter-in-place, 20% are too small to be useful, and 40% don't have enough holds to be useful, haha. Hilarious, scary, and not wrong. One of the big California chains just announced that those who continue to pay for membership during closure are considered "priority members". When gyms first reopen (which is months, not weeks away, according to Gavin Newsome's announcement yesterday), climbing will be through an appointment system and priority members will be the only ones who have access to appointments. I think that missteps like this and the one that Charlie mentions will further push climbers to their home walls and hangboards. That is fucking insane, but not surprising if you have any experience with these new Globogyms. In the old days climbers would rebel hard against that type of extortion. Nowadays I'm not so sure. |
|
hangboarderjon
New Member
Sometimes the hard way is the only way.
Posts: 44
|
Post by hangboarderjon on Apr 29, 2020 14:36:55 GMT -7
That is fucking insane, but not surprising if you have any experience with these new Globogyms. In the old days climbers would rebel hard against that type of extortion. Nowadays I'm not so sure. Climbing culture has shifted as the sport has gone mainstream (and this will increase after the olympics). Now that there's coaching (*ahem*), guides-a-plenty, guidebooks-a-plenty, and convenient 'safe' indoor walls to climb at, one no longer needs to be a rebellious and possibly reckless outcast to master the skills of rock climbing. Rebels are naturally skeptical of money-motivated schemes, but ordinary people are less so. However, one of the benefits of this quarantine is that I'm reflecting on what used to motivate me to climb and train to climb, and the limitations and negatives of indoor gyms. I'd lulled myself into thinking that I could let the gym take control over what kinds of climbing I did and what options I had to choose from, to the detriment of my physical training goals. |
|
|
|
Post by jetjackson on Apr 29, 2020 15:01:45 GMT -7
I'm not sure why you would pay for membership during a closure when they may not even reopen.
I've seen a fair bit of this with gyms appealing with what in sales we call the 'support sell'. "Please support the gym that has supported you and the climbing community". I've seen great gyms that forgo profits to run comps, and do all sorts of things for the climbing community, and in some cases it would be a warranted request, however, that's not what I'm observing. It's actually those supportive gyms that immediately suspended direct debits for memberships because the owners are just those kinds of people.
The biggest thing for me though, is, if I am to support your globo-gym now, will I also get a share in the profits when the gym is back in the black?
|
|
|
|
Post by Charlie S on Apr 30, 2020 7:06:19 GMT -7
The biggest thing for me though, is, if I am to support your globo-gym now, will I also get a share in the profits when the gym is back in the black? Ha! Maybe if some of the investors back out and you have the chance to actually buy some shares. The same gym brand I previously spoke of also has the gym closed for a full week at least every 2 months for a comp...youth comp, citizens comp, pro comp, etc. It was out of hand. Oh btw, no refunds for that lost week. I do really like the opportunity to meet people at gyms; I miss that the most. And it's nice to clip draws when it's roasting (or snowing) outside. I think that is what will keep some gyms afloat. I would speculate that areas without much outdoor climbing will likely fare better. Ignoring a "second wave," most people will forget about this in a few months and it'll all be back to "normal." In the meanwhile, I know many local climbers are climbing outside. They are flocking to areas where the SLC climbing police can't reprimand them on Mountain Project and not posting about it. That's been going on for a couple weeks. Formal sanitation is definitely not going on there. However, the wall gets cooked in sunlight every morning. |
|
|
|
Post by erick on Apr 30, 2020 11:39:08 GMT -7
I think gyms will close, and unfortunately it will be the mid sized independent places that are likely to shut down. The small training oriented spaces I have heard about but never seen should have pretty low overhead, the globe-o-gyms will be able to get more money to keep going, but everything else will have a hard time holding on. I am holding out for the huge climbing hold blowout sales in the next few months. I wonder what effect this whole thing is going to have on stalling the growth of climbing, if any at all.
I have been wondering if I should let myself go climbing these past weeks. I have boulders within a 10 minute drive of my house. So I would be recreating locally. I also have a fantastic training space to stay sane in, so i've been trying to keep in place because I can. But this afternoon I will probably get out and go climb.
|
|
